BABA(BABA) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-09 14:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba (BABA) [2][12][23] Core Insights - The core e-commerce segment continues to show growth, driven by AI technology, which is expected to propel a new technology cycle [6][12] - Revenue for FY4Q25 is forecasted to reach RMB 241.5 billion, representing an 8.9% year-on-year increase, with non-GAAP net profit expected to be RMB 28.0 billion, up 10% year-on-year [7][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and the role of Taotian as the largest online consumption platform in China, benefiting from increased user engagement and market share stability [8][12] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Alibaba are as follows: - FY23: RMB 868,687 million - FY24: RMB 941,168 million - FY25E: RMB 1,001,424 million - FY26E: RMB 1,099,939 million - FY27E: RMB 1,203,232 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 1.8% for FY23, 8.3% for FY24, 6.4% for FY25E, 9.8% for FY26E, and 9.4% for FY27E [5][14] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are: - FY23: RMB 143,991 million - FY24: RMB 158,359 million - FY25E: RMB 155,930 million - FY26E: RMB 177,305 million - FY27E: RMB 190,169 million - The report anticipates a decline in non-GAAP net profit growth in FY25E to -1.5%, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [5][14] Business Segment Performance - Taotian is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 5.4% year-on-year, while the International Digital Commerce Group is projected to grow by 26% [6][7] - The Cloud Intelligence Group is anticipated to see significant revenue growth driven by increased AI demand and capital expenditures [9][12] - The Local Life Group is expected to continue reducing losses while maintaining steady order growth [10][11] Strategic Focus - Alibaba is focusing on core business investments while developing new growth drivers in AI and international markets [12] - The report highlights the strategic importance of enhancing the business ecosystem for merchants and improving advertising efficiency [8][9]