MCC(SH:601618) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-10 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][3][20] Core Viewpoints - The company faces revenue and profit pressures due to weak downstream industry conditions, but it is actively optimizing its business structure and fully provisioning for impairments to release potential risks [3][20][8] - The company achieved a significant increase in new overseas contracts, with a total of 1,248.3 billion yuan in new contracts, up 12.4% year-on-year, and overseas contracts increased by 47.8% [12][8] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is reported at 9.69%, remaining stable year-on-year, although the fourth quarter gross margin dropped to 8.19% due to poor year-end project settlements [14][2] Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 552 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.75 billion yuan, down 22.2% [4][8] - The company’s operating cash flow improved by 33.2% year-on-year, reaching 7.85 billion yuan, indicating a slight recovery in cash collection [17][2] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for the next three years is 6.69 billion yuan, 6.84 billion yuan, and 6.93 billion yuan, respectively, with earnings per share projected at 0.32 yuan, 0.33 yuan, and 0.33 yuan [3][20] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is expected to be 8.6, 8.5, and 8.3 for the next three years [20][4]