BABA(HK:09988) Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-10 01:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (09988) with a target price of HKD 144, while the current price is HKD 103.6 [5]. Core Viewpoints - Alibaba's GMV is stabilizing and expected to recover due to a user-first strategy, despite a slowdown in overall e-commerce growth in China [1][19]. - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience and optimizing its membership program, 88VIP, which has accumulated over 42 million high-engagement users contributing more than 25% of GMV [1][19]. - Alibaba's share buyback program has reached unprecedented levels, with a total of 3.381 billion shares repurchased for USD 38.74 billion, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Potential and Changes - China's e-commerce penetration still has room for growth, with online retail sales reaching CNY 13.79 trillion in 2022, accounting for 27.2% of total retail sales [1][13]. - The report highlights that Alibaba's market share in online retail has declined from 59%-64% in 2018-2019 to 49% by FY24Q4, attributed to intensified competition [16][19]. - The user-first strategy is expected to enhance consumer retention and purchasing frequency, leading to a potential recovery in GMV [19][32]. 2. Organizational Changes and Strategic Focus - Alibaba has streamlined its organizational structure, focusing on two core businesses: Taobao and Alibaba Cloud, under the leadership of new CEO Wu Yongming [2][5]. - The company is implementing a comprehensive promotion strategy to enhance monetization rates for small and medium-sized merchants, leveraging AI to optimize advertising effectiveness [2][5]. 3. International E-commerce Growth - The report notes that AliExpress is seeing growth through a combination of fully managed and semi-managed services, which account for over 70% of orders, enhancing user experience and attracting new users [4]. - Lazada has achieved its first positive EBITDA in July 2024, supported by a robust logistics network and payment system [4]. 4. Cloud Services and AI Integration - Alibaba Cloud remains the largest IaaS provider in the Asia-Pacific region, with a focus on AI-driven strategies to enhance service offerings and reduce costs [4]. - The report emphasizes the continuous iteration of the Tongyi model, which has shown strong performance in various applications, indicating a commitment to AI development [4].