CTG DUTY-FREE(601888)2025-04-10 02:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [6][4] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 aligns with previous earnings reports, with total revenue of 56.47 billion yuan, down 16.4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to slower-than-expected recovery in consumer demand, particularly in the duty-free segment, which saw sales of approximately 38.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.58% year-on-year [2][3] - The Hainan duty-free market experienced a significant downturn, with revenue of 28.89 billion yuan, down 27% year-on-year, accounting for 51% of total revenue [2][3] - The company is actively expanding its channels, having secured operating rights for duty-free projects at 10 airports and ports, with notable revenue growth at existing duty-free stores in major airports [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.45 billion yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.35 billion yuan, down 76.9% year-on-year [1] - The overall gross margin for the company in 2024 was 32.0%, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year [2] Market Opportunities - The introduction of the new policy on city duty-free stores is expected to provide a new growth avenue for the company, with the opening of a duty-free store in Dalian and additional stores planned in cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou [3][4] Future Projections - The company is projected to recover its growth rate under supportive policies and consumer recovery trends, with estimated net profits of 4.9 billion yuan, 5.5 billion yuan, and 6.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][13]