Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) with a target price not specified [5][4]. Core Views - The express delivery industry is expected to benefit from increased domestic demand, which may lead to higher growth in delivery volumes and prices [1][2]. - The express delivery price decline reached 18% year-on-year in February 2025, but a recovery is anticipated as competition eases and demand increases [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered due to unexpected price declines, with projected net profits of 10.4 billion and 11.7 billion respectively, down from previous estimates [4]. Summary by Sections Market Conditions - The express delivery volume and price growth are expected to rise due to domestic demand stimulation in response to increased tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. [2]. - The domestic express delivery market is projected to see significant volume growth, potentially exceeding the growth rates observed in 2019 [2]. Price Trends - A significant drop in express delivery prices has been noted, but a cyclical recovery is expected as market conditions improve [3]. - The competitive landscape may stabilize, leading to a narrowing of price declines, which would benefit profitability for express delivery companies [3]. Financial Projections - The report has adjusted the profit forecasts for ZTO Express, projecting net profits of 10.4 billion, 11.7 billion, and 12.4 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.8, 8.8, and 8.3 [4].
中通快递-W（02057）：若提振内需，量价有望上行