Weichai Power(SZ:000338) Guohai Securities·2025-04-10 06:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for Weichai Power (000338) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Weichai Power is a leader in heavy-duty engines, with a stable outlook driven by the recovery of the domestic heavy truck market, expansion in export markets, and the continued demand for natural gas heavy trucks. The company is expected to maintain stable profitability due to these three factors. Additionally, the diversification into large-bore engines and power batteries provides further growth opportunities, indicating a bright future for the company [5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Weichai Power reported revenue of 215.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The company sold 734,000 engines, with 8,000 units of the M series large-bore high power density engines sold, remaining flat year-on-year. The total vehicle sales reached 118,000 units, up 2% year-on-year, with exports of medium and heavy trucks increasing by 15% to 59,000 units. The subsidiary Kion achieved a record revenue of 11.5 billion euros [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 was 11.4 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.5%, with the fourth quarter net profit reaching 3 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.47 yuan per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, totaling 6.267 billion yuan, which accounts for approximately 55% of the net profit attributable to the parent company [5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for Weichai Power's revenue for 2025-2027 is as follows: 227.75 billion yuan in 2025 (6% growth), 244.47 billion yuan in 2026 (7% growth), and 263.46 billion yuan in 2027 (8% growth). The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 12.36 billion yuan in 2025 (8% growth), 13.65 billion yuan in 2026 (10% growth), and 15.54 billion yuan in 2027 (14% growth) [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.42 yuan in 2025, 1.56 yuan in 2026, and 1.78 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10.51, 9.52, and 8.36 respectively [7][8].