XGD(SZ:300130) Haitong Securities International·2025-04-10 07:02Investment Rating - Maintain 'Outperform' rating with a target price adjusted to RMB 23.31, based on a 19x PE for 2025 [3][6] Core Insights - The company's performance is impacted by tax and goodwill impairment, with 2024 revenue projected at RMB 3.15 billion, down 17.20% YoY, and net profit at RMB 234 million, down 68.98% YoY [3][6] - Long-term profitability is expected to improve due to industry concentration and strategic optimization, with gross profit margins increasing from 21.78% in 2021 to 40.56% in 2024 [3][6] - Domestic transaction turnover is stabilizing, while cross-border payment and AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) are expected to expand profit opportunities [3][6] Financial Data and Forecasts - 2024 financial projections include: - Revenue: RMB 3,148 million - Net profit: RMB 234 million - Recurring net profit: RMB 492 million [2][4] - EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are adjusted to RMB 1.23 and RMB 1.37 respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 1.50 [3][6] - The company is expected to process transaction turnover of approximately RMB 14.7 trillion in 2024, a decrease of 24.2% YoY [3][6] Market and Operational Developments - The company has established a cross-border business unit and obtained necessary licenses, including the Hong Kong MSO license, to enhance its overseas payment capabilities [3][6] - The revenue from payment devices in 2024 is projected at RMB 941 million, with overseas revenue contributing RMB 901 million, representing 95.75% of total revenue [3][6] - High-end markets in Europe, the USA, and Japan are showing significant growth potential, with revenue from these markets increasing by 63.61% YoY to RMB 271 million [3][6]