BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-10 08:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baofeng Energy is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][15][21] Core Views - Baofeng Energy is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.35 billion to 2.50 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.38% to 75.93% [2][3] - The primary driver for this profit increase is the gradual ramp-up of the Inner Mongolia 3 million tons/year olefin project, which has significantly boosted olefin product output and sales [2][3] - The decline in the prices of gasification raw coal and thermal coal has improved the profit margins of olefin products [2][10] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a net profit of 12.206 billion, 12.413 billion, and 13.267 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.66, 1.69, and 1.81 yuan [15][19] Production Capacity Expansion - The olefin production capacity is expected to increase from 2.2 million tons to 5.2 million tons per year, with ongoing projects in Ningdong Phase IV and Xinjiang [8][14] Cost Advantages - The average cost of coal-based olefins is projected to be 6,556 yuan/ton, while oil-based olefins are at 8,027 yuan/ton, giving coal-based olefins a cost advantage of approximately 1,471 yuan/ton [10][19]