Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 18% to 800 million yuan due to a decrease in gross margin and credit impairment provisions of approximately 100 million yuan [1][3][9] - The company has seen a 17% increase in commercial construction revenue, which now accounts for 80% of total revenue, while government construction revenue has decreased by 21% [1][9] - The overall gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 49.6%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous year, with commercial and government construction margins at 51% and 40%, respectively [1][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.4 billion yuan, with a net profit of 800 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 18% [1][3][4] - The gross margin is projected to be 49.6%, with a decrease in both commercial and government construction margins [1][9] Market Position and Expansion - As of the end of 2024, the company operates in 130 cities with a total contracted construction area of 130 million square meters, a 5% year-on-year increase [2][13] - The new signed construction area for 2024 is 36.49 million square meters, with a market share of 22.1%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [2][13] Investment Recommendations - Due to the shrinking demand for government construction and increased competition in the construction industry, revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 3.6 billion yuan and 3.7 billion yuan, and 800 million yuan for both years, respectively [3][18] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 is 0.41 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.7 and 6.5 times [3][18]
绿城管理控股（09979）：竞争加剧导致业绩承压