巨化股份（600160）：业绩保持持续增长，制冷剂价格不断上行

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 760 million to 840 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 145% to 171%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 740 million to 820 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 157% to 185% [2][7] - The company plans to increase its holdings by no less than 50 million yuan and no more than 100 million yuan within three months starting from April 8 [2][7] - The price of refrigerants continues to rise due to reduced production quotas for the second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and strong downstream demand, leading to an improved supply-demand balance [13] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with expectations of 760 million to 840 million yuan, marking a growth of 145% to 171% year-on-year [2][7] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be 740 million to 820 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 157% to 185% year-on-year [2][7] Market Dynamics - The average price of refrigerants has increased significantly, with external sales volume reaching 70,000 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The average price per ton is 37,500 yuan, up 58.1% year-on-year and 27.8% quarter-on-quarter [13] - The domestic and export market prices for various refrigerants have shown substantial increases compared to the previous quarter, with R22, R32, R134a, and R125 experiencing price hikes of 7.2% to 80.1% [13] Business Outlook - The upcoming peak season from April to June is expected to drive both volume and price increases in the refrigerant market, with projected production increases for household air conditioners [13] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's upward trend, with projected earnings of 1.97 billion, 4.75 billion, and 6.12 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026 [13]