CMS(SH:600999) Zhongyuan Securities·2025-04-10 10:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company achieved an operating income of 20.891 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.386 billion yuan, up 18.51% year-on-year [5][8] - The company’s investment income (including fair value changes) significantly increased, contributing to a solid foundation for net profit recovery [6][22] - Despite a decline in market share for brokerage services, the company remains among the top five in key brokerage metrics [6][11] - The company is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at fostering strong firms and building a first-class investment bank [6][26] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a basic earnings per share (EPS) of 1.13 yuan, a 20.21% increase year-on-year, and a return on equity (ROE) of 8.82%, up 0.91 percentage points [5][8] - The proposed dividend for 2024 is 3.77 yuan per share (including tax), with a total dividend payout ratio of 40.02% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase of 15 percentage points year-on-year [8] Business Segments - The proportion of brokerage and investment income increased, while the net income from investment banking and asset management decreased [5][9] - The company’s brokerage business net income increased by 11.79% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in market share [11][12] - The investment banking segment saw a significant decline in net income, down 34.25% year-on-year, due to a drop in equity financing [13] Investment Strategy - The company’s investment strategy focuses on high-dividend investments and diversified investment strategies, achieving a 33.23% year-on-year increase in investment income [22] - The company is actively developing capital intermediary transactions and quantitative strategies in its equity derivatives business [22] Future Projections - The company expects EPS of 1.16 yuan and 1.22 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) of 14.00 yuan and 14.79 yuan [6][26] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratios are projected to be 1.22 and 1.15 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, based on the closing price of 17.07 yuan on April 9 [6][26]