GDTC(SH:688186) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-04-10 10:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.12 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 75 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 1505% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 89% [6]. - The growth in Q1 2025 is attributed to the increased output of gearbox components and a substantial rise in wind power casting shipments. Cost reduction through technological improvements and enhanced capacity utilization are also contributing to the recovery of profitability [6]. - The company is expected to diversify its customer base and increase the proportion of finished products, which will enhance profitability. The wind power casting shipments are anticipated to grow significantly, with the spindle forging shipments expected to double year-on-year, further supporting profitability [6]. Financial Projections - The company is forecasted to achieve net profits of 109 million yuan in 2023, 119 million yuan in 2024, 319 million yuan in 2025, and 413 million yuan in 2026, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 9%, 168%, and 30% [2][6]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 3.79 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.94 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 13%, 5%, 32%, and 13% for the respective years [2][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 43.4 in 2023 to 11.5 in 2026, indicating an improvement in valuation as earnings grow [2][6].