ZJJH(600160)2025-04-10 13:35Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in Q1 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected to be between 0.76 billion RMB and 0.84 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 145% to 171% [4][7]. - The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.75 RMB, 1.31 RMB, and 1.57 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 32.75 RMB based on a 25x PE for 2025 [4][7]. - The refrigerant sector is experiencing strong demand, with the company holding a 34% share of the total HFC quota of 791,900 tonnes, benefiting from the ongoing growth in air conditioning production and sales [4][7]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 20,655 million RMB in 2023 to 25,244 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.2% [3][6]. - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) is forecasted to increase significantly from 944 million RMB in 2023 to 3,525 million RMB in 2025, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [3][6]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 23.8% in 2025, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency [6]. Sector Performance - The refrigerant segment's revenue rose by 64.63% year-on-year to 2.62 billion RMB, driven by a 9.56% increase in production and a 58.08% rise in prices [4][7]. - Other sectors, including fluorinated chemicals and petrochemical materials, also reported revenue growth, while packaging materials and fluorinated fine chemicals experienced declines [4][7]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for refrigerants, particularly in emerging markets, as well as from its investments in advanced fluoropolymers and next-generation refrigerants [4][7].