BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) Tebon Securities·2025-04-10 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.35 billion to 2.50 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 65.38% to 75.93% [5][6] - The decline in coal prices has improved cost conditions, while the price spread of olefins continues to expand, leading to an increase in product profit margins [6] - The company is entering a phase of rapid capacity release, with significant year-on-year growth in olefin production and sales [6] - The establishment of a third base in Xinjiang is expected to open up long-term growth opportunities for the company [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Baofeng Energy's stock has shown a relative decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute declines of -13.42% over the past month [4] Financial Performance - The company forecasts a significant increase in revenue, with expected operating income of 53.07 billion yuan in 2025, up 60.9% year-on-year [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 14.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 125.7% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 1.95 yuan in 2025 [8] Production and Capacity - The first series of the Inner Mongolia coal-to-olefins project has reached full production capacity, contributing to the increase in olefin output [6] - The company plans to complete the ramp-up of three production lines in the first half of 2025, which will further enhance production capacity [6] Strategic Developments - The Xinjiang coal-to-olefins project is progressing, with a planned capacity of 4 million tons per year, marking the company's third major production base [6] - Ongoing projects in Ningdong and Inner Mongolia are also in the planning stages, indicating robust long-term growth potential [6]