CMSK(SZ:001979) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-10 14:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company continues to experience a decline in sales while maintaining a stable industry ranking. It is actively acquiring land, focusing on core cities, with a land acquisition intensity exceeding 50%. The company has also announced an acceleration in its share repurchase program. Profit forecasts remain unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 5.97 billion, 6.47 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan, respectively, and corresponding EPS of 0.66, 0.71, and 0.77 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 14.7, 13.6, and 12.5 times for the respective years [1][4][5] Sales Performance - In March 2025, the company achieved a contracted sales area of 595,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%. The contracted sales amount reached 15.617 billion yuan, down 18.5% year-on-year. For the first three months of 2025, the contracted sales area was 1.4582 million square meters, a decline of 12.5%, with a total sales amount of 35.07 billion yuan, down 12.8% year-on-year. The average contracted sales price was 24,050 yuan per square meter, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year [5] Land Acquisition - In March 2025, the company acquired two land parcels in Chengdu and Changsha, with a total construction area of 210,700 square meters and a total land price of 3.37 billion yuan. From January to March 2025, the company acquired seven land parcels in first- and second-tier cities, with a total construction area of 724,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 51.7%, and a total land price of 20.02 billion yuan, up 102% year-on-year. The land acquisition intensity was 57.1%, significantly higher than 24.7% in the same period of 2024, with 76.4% of the acquisitions in first-tier cities [6] Financial Health - The company's debt structure remains robust, having successfully issued 1 billion yuan in medium-term notes at a low interest rate of 2.05%. In 2024, the company raised 15.46 billion yuan in public market financing, with a comprehensive funding cost of 2.99%, a reduction of 48 basis points from the beginning of 2024. As of the end of 2024, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of 222.6 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.67%. The net debt ratio stood at 55.85%, and the cash-to-short-term debt ratio was 1.59, maintaining a healthy financial position [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 194.201 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.969 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.8%. The gross margin is expected to be 18.0%, and the net margin is projected at 4.5%. The EPS for 2025 is estimated at 0.66 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 14.7 times [8][10][11]