ANTA SPORTS(HK:02020) HUAXI Securities·2025-04-10 14:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 operational data showing high single-digit growth for its main brand, FILA, and other brands, which aligns with market expectations. The acquisition of the German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin for a base price of $290 million is expected to be completed by the end of Q2 or early Q3 2025 [2][3] Summary by Sections Q1 Performance - In Q1 2025, the main brand achieved high single-digit growth, consistent with the annual growth forecast. The growth rate remained stable compared to Q4 2024 and improved from Q1 2024. This growth is attributed to the continuous adjustment of store types, including the opening of new store formats like Super Anta and Anta Champion [3] - FILA also reported high single-digit growth in Q1 2025, exceeding annual growth expectations, with growth rates stable compared to Q4 2024 [3] - Other brands, including Descente, KOLON, and MAIA, experienced growth rates of 65-70% in Q1 2025, up from 50-55% in Q4 2024 and 25-30% in Q1 2024, indicating improvements in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth [3] Investment Recommendations - The impact of U.S. tax increases on the company is minimal, as overseas revenue accounts for less than 1%. The company anticipates high single-digit growth for the main brand and mid-single-digit growth for FILA in 2025, with KOLON and DESCENTE expected to grow by 30%. The company plans to have a total of 6,900-7,000 Anta stores, 2,600-2,700 Anta Kids stores, 2,100-2,200 FILA stores, and 260-270 DESCENTE stores by the end of 2025 [4] - In the medium to long term, the outdoor market is expected to improve, with KOLON and DESCENTE likely to enhance their core competitiveness and market share. The newly acquired Jack Wolfskin is expected to contribute additional revenue, although there may be short-term integration losses and cost pressures [4] - The company maintains revenue forecasts of 77 billion, 85.9 billion, and 96 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit forecasts of 13.87 billion, 15.91 billion, and 17.88 billion yuan for the same years. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.94, 5.67, and 6.37 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 16, 14, and 12 times, respectively [4][7]