CTG DUTY-FREE(601888) 长江证券·2025-04-10 23:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an upward adjustment [11]. Core Viewpoints - The company focuses on domestic demand and innovation, aiming to expand its business footprint through strategic partnerships and market development, particularly in the "Belt and Road" regions and Southeast Asia [2][9]. - The company has established itself as a leader in China's duty-free industry, leveraging its core competitive advantages in channels, scale, operational management, and brand recognition [2][9]. - The report forecasts steady revenue growth, with expected net profits of 4.296 billion, 4.383 billion, and 4.524 billion yuan for 2025-2027, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 33.81, 33.14, and 32.11 times, respectively [2][52]. Policy Support and Domestic Focus - In 2023, various government policies aimed at boosting consumption have been introduced, emphasizing the importance of tourism consumption, particularly in the duty-free shopping sector [6][15]. - The government has outlined plans to expand cultural and tourism consumption, improve duty-free policies, and establish more duty-free shops [6][15]. Market Recovery and Growth - The global duty-free and travel retail market is projected to achieve a sales volume of 73.73 billion USD (approximately 530 billion yuan) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [7][19]. - The recovery in global travel and tourism is expected to drive growth in the duty-free sector, with significant increases in sales from airport and onboard channels [7][16]. - The report highlights that the duty-free industry is poised for new growth opportunities, benefiting from the positive outlook of the tourism sector and consumer preferences [8][36]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 56.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% [52]. - The report indicates a significant decline in revenue from key regions, with Hainan's revenue dropping by 27.13% and Shanghai's by 10.02% [52]. - The company's comprehensive gross margin slightly increased to 32.03%, while the sales expense ratio rose to 16.05%, impacting net profit margins [55]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a stabilization and potential recovery in Hainan's duty-free sales, with growth expected in airport and port sales as outbound travel increases [52]. - The company is expected to leverage its core channel positions and procurement advantages to navigate through the current demand downturn and return to a growth trajectory [52].