CHUNLI MEDICAL(688236) Huachuang Securities·2025-04-11 00:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 17 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The impact of centralized procurement is gradually clearing, and overseas revenue has significantly increased, contributing to the company's performance recovery [2][8]. - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 806 million yuan, a decrease of 33.32% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 125 million yuan, down 55.01% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company experienced a substantial decline in domestic revenue due to centralized procurement policies, while overseas revenue surged by 78.31%, accounting for 44% of total revenue [2][8]. Financial Summary - 2024 Financial Performance: - Total revenue: 806 million yuan, down 33.32% - Net profit: 125 million yuan, down 55.01% - Q4 revenue: 298 million yuan, down 28.53% - Q4 net profit: 64 million yuan, down 34.33% [2][4][8]. - Future Projections: - Expected revenue growth for 2025-2027: 1,051 million yuan (30.5%), 1,318 million yuan (25.4%), and 1,604 million yuan (21.7%) respectively [4][8]. - Projected net profit for 2025-2027: 219 million yuan (74.5%), 279 million yuan (27.9%), and 348 million yuan (24.9%) respectively [4][8]. - Valuation Metrics: - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027: 0.57 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and 0.91 yuan respectively [4][8]. - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025-2027: 22, 17, and 14 respectively [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The company is expected to recover from the impacts of centralized procurement, with a focus on expanding its international market presence and benefiting from the aging population driving demand for orthopedic surgeries [2][8].