SUN PAPER(SZ:002078) Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-11 00:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 40.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 3.1 billion, up 1% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on cultivating new productive forces and promoting high-quality sustainable development in a challenging market environment [1] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability due to rising pulp prices and expected domestic demand recovery [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.75 billion, down 6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 640 million, down 32% year-on-year [1] - For 2024, the gross margin is expected to be 16.0%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points, while the net profit margin is projected at 7.6%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points [1] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.62 billion, 4.19 billion, and 4.78 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11X, 9X, and 8X [5] Product Segments - Cultural paper revenue for 2024 is projected at 13 billion, down 2.33% year-on-year, while gross margin is expected to be 13.35%, a decrease of 3.28 percentage points [2] - The dissolving pulp segment is expected to see revenue of 4.1 billion in 2024, an increase of 11.77%, with a gross margin of 24.38%, up 8.3 percentage points [2] - The boxboard paper segment is projected to generate revenue of 10.93 billion in 2024, an increase of 11.47%, with a gross margin of 15.22%, down 0.48 percentage points [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company has established three major production bases in Shandong, Guangxi, and Laos, enhancing its capacity and cost advantages through a "forest-pulp-paper" integrated strategy [4] - Significant projects are set to commence in 2025, including a new specialty paper base and upgrades to dissolving pulp production lines [4] - The company plans to increase its plantation area in Laos by over 10,000 hectares annually, which is expected to further solidify its cost advantages [4]