Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 19% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 24.01 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 20%, amounting to 3.84 billion yuan. The dividend distribution is anticipated to exceed previous expectations, with a total proposed payout of 2.684 billion yuan, translating to a dividend per share of 2.3 yuan and a payout ratio of approximately 70% [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 24.01 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 20% growth. The gross profit margin is expected to rise by 1.2 percentage points to 26.8% [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1 billion yuan, up 9% from the previous year [2]. Orders and Client Relationships - The company is deepening cooperation with core clients and anticipates rapid order growth from new clients like Adidas in 2025. Revenue from different product categories shows significant growth, particularly in outdoor footwear and sandals, with total revenue from core clients reaching 204.1 billion yuan from the US, 30.6 billion yuan from Europe, and 4.9 billion yuan from other regions [3]. Production Capacity - The company is expected to expand its production capacity significantly, with total capacity reaching 22.9 million pairs and total output at 22.1 million pairs in 2024. The capacity utilization rate is projected to be 97%, indicating a near-saturation state [4]. Operational Management - The company has shown healthy inventory management with a year-end inventory increase of 13.8% to 3.12 billion yuan. The operating cash flow for 2024 is estimated at 4.62 billion yuan, approximately 1.2 times the net profit for the same period, indicating strong cash flow management [5]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading global sports shoe manufacturer, with expectations for a 15% growth in revenue and performance in 2025, driven by new customer collaborations and accelerated capacity expansion. The projected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.387 billion yuan, 5.062 billion yuan, and 5.832 billion yuan, respectively [5].
华利集团（300979）：基本面持续高质量增长，2024年分红超出预期