ANTA SPORTS(HK:02020) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-11 01:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (02020.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][14] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Anta's main brand achieved high single-digit growth, while FILA also recorded high single-digit growth, and other brands saw a growth of 65-70%. The overall group revenue grew by double digits, indicating strong performance despite a high base [2][3][4] - The acquisition of the German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin for a base price of $290 million is expected to enhance Anta's competitive position in the outdoor sports segment and align with its strategy of multi-brand globalization [3][9][14] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 134.8 billion, 154.6 billion, and 170.0 billion yuan respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of 13.0%, 14.7%, and 10.0% [3][14][16] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Anta's Q1 2025 revenue growth was strong, with a healthy inventory level and stable discounts. The inventory-to-sales ratio was below 5, indicating good inventory management [3][4][5] - Breakdown of revenue growth showed high single-digit increases for Anta's main products and children's lines, with online sales growing in the low double digits and offline sales in the mid-single digits [5][6] Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is valued at $290 million, with a price-to-sales ratio below 1. The deal is expected to close by the end of Q2 or early Q3 2025 [2][3][9] - Jack Wolfskin, known for its outdoor apparel and equipment, generated approximately €300 million in revenue in FY 2024, with a significant portion coming from Europe and China [10][13] Financial Projections - The report projects revenue growth for Anta from 62.36 billion yuan in 2023 to 96.21 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 8.4% [16][19] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 134.8 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 13.6% compared to 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [16][19]