JD(HK:09618) CMS·2025-04-11 02:34Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group with a target price of 193 HKD per share, while the current share price is 141.7 HKD [2]. Core Insights - JD Group is expected to achieve a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.6% in Q1 2025, with Non-GAAP net profit projected to grow by 15% [1][6]. - The growth is driven by strong performance in the electronics and daily necessities categories, with a solid self-operated e-commerce model providing a competitive edge [1][6]. - The company is anticipated to benefit significantly from domestic consumption policies, especially if new stimulus measures are introduced [1][6]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: 1,084,662 million HKD - 2024: 1,158,819 million HKD (4% growth) - 2025E: 1,251,543 million HKD (7% growth) - 2026E: 1,329,509 million HKD (8% growth) - 2027E: 1,397,248 million HKD (6% growth) [2][7] - Non-GAAP Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: 35,200 million HKD - 2024: 47,827 million HKD (25% growth) - 2025E: 52,165 million HKD (36% growth) - 2026E: 56,387 million HKD (9% growth) - 2027E: 60,819 million HKD (8% growth) [2][7] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 8.34 HKD - 2024: 14.27 HKD - 2025E: 17.23 HKD - 2026E: 18.82 HKD - 2027E: 20.37 HKD [2][10] - Valuation Ratios: - PE (Non-GAAP): - 2023: 10.9 - 2024: 8.0 - 2025E: 7.3 - 2026E: 6.8 - 2027E: 6.3 [2][9] Stock Performance - Absolute Performance: - 1 month: -9.2% - 6 months: -13.0% - 12 months: +36.6% [4] Shareholder Information - Total shares outstanding: 3,183 million - Total market capitalization: 467 billion HKD - Major shareholder: Max Smart Limited with a 9.6% stake [3].