Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company achieved a turnaround in profitability, with a net profit of 1.07 billion RMB, driven by improved gross margins in development business and reduced inventory impairment [2] - The company has made significant progress in its commercial layout and property management business, with non-development revenue growing by 1.3% year-on-year [3] - The company’s industry position has improved, ranking 12th in sales with a total sales of 98.3 billion RMB, despite a year-on-year decline of 30.4% [4] - Financially, the company remains stable with a decrease in interest-bearing debt and a net debt-to-adjusted capital ratio of 67% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 59.05 billion RMB, a decrease of 18% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.6%, up by 2.1 percentage points [2] - The core net profit for 2024 is projected at 1.33 billion RMB, marking a significant recovery from losses in 2023 [5] Business Development - The company has successfully listed its commercial REIT, enhancing asset liquidity, although its commercial leasing and retail revenue fell by 6% to 1.7 billion RMB [3] - The property management segment achieved revenue of 2.97 billion RMB, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [3] Market Position and Land Acquisition - The company acquired 22 new land parcels primarily in first and second-tier cities, with a total land acquisition cost exceeding 42.9 billion RMB [4] - The sales performance in Q1 2025 showed a 4.5% year-on-year increase, indicating a stabilization in sales [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 1.13 billion RMB and 1.27 billion RMB respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.4 billion RMB [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.3 for 2025, indicating a stable operational outlook [5]
中国金茂（00817）：动态跟踪：业绩扭亏为盈，拿地力度边际回升