Peacebird(SH:603877) GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-04-11 03:55Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue decline of 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a net profit decrease of 22%. However, the gross margin improved significantly by 4.8 percentage points to 60.0% due to better control over product structure and discount management [1][4]. - The company is nearing the end of its channel adjustments, with expectations for improved cash flow and operational efficiency in the future [4][3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, the company's revenue was 1.67 billion yuan, and the net profit was 120 million yuan. The non-recurring profit was 40 million yuan, mainly from government subsidies [1]. - The gross margin showed a notable improvement, but the net profit margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 7.4% due to rising expense ratios [1]. Brand Performance - All brands experienced a decline in revenue in Q1 2025, with PB Women's wear down 13%, PB Men's wear down 7%, and others showing similar trends. However, gross margins improved across the board [2]. - The company is focusing on a "one brand" strategy, enhancing its multi-brand collection stores in key cities [2]. Channel Performance - Online sales decreased by 13% to 450 million yuan, but the gross margin improved by 4.4 percentage points to 49.7%. Offline direct sales fell by 4% to 820 million yuan, with a gross margin of 70.6% [3]. - The company has streamlined its channel structure, with a reduction in the number of direct and franchise stores, indicating that channel adjustments are nearly complete [3]. Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory increased by 19.8% year-on-year to 1.64 billion yuan, with inventory turnover days rising by 67.6 days to 227.8 days [4]. - The operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was a net outflow of 300 million yuan, attributed to decreased revenue and accelerated payment schedules [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects stable revenue growth in 2025, with improved profit quality as channel and management adjustments take effect [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 359 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 466 million yuan respectively, with a projected P/E ratio of 22 times for 2025 [4].