Yanjing Brewery(000729) 华创证券·2025-04-11 04:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer, with a target price of 15.5 CNY [2][6]. Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, establishing a solid foundation for high growth throughout the year. The sales of the flagship product, Yanjing U8, continue to show strong growth, contributing to the overall positive performance [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue increase of 3.2% to 14.67 billion CNY in 2024, with a significant rise in net profit by 63.74% to 1.056 billion CNY [2][6]. - The report highlights a positive operational cycle driven by effective management reforms, cost reductions, and enhanced scale effects, which are expected to continue supporting growth [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 14.67 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2% [2][6]. - Net profit for 2024 is expected to reach 1.056 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 63.8% compared to the previous year [2][6]. - For Q1 2025, net profit is anticipated to be between 160 million to 172 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.96% to 67.66% [2][6]. - Key Financial Metrics: - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.23 CNY in 2023 to 0.37 CNY in 2024, and further to 0.51 CNY in 2025 [2][6]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 58 in 2023 to 35 in 2024, and further down to 26 in 2025 [2][6]. - Sales Performance: - The company achieved a total sales volume of 4 million tons in 2024, with an average selling price of 3,633 CNY per ton, both showing a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [2][6]. - The flagship product, Yanjing U8, is projected to maintain a sales volume of 700,000 tons, with a growth rate exceeding 30% [2][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the ongoing positive operational cycle and the effectiveness of management reforms, reiterating the "Strong Buy" rating. The anticipated strong performance in Q1 2025 is expected to further catalyze growth as the peak season approaches [2][6].