CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE-B(SZ:000625) Minsheng Securities·2025-04-11 07:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 12.20 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14 for 2025 [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 159.73 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.32 billion CNY, up 104.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company is accelerating its transition to new energy vehicles, with significant sales growth in its self-branded models, particularly in the new energy segment [4]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 189.55 billion CNY, 209.46 billion CNY, and 233.54 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits of 8.87 billion CNY, 10.76 billion CNY, and 12.72 billion CNY [4][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached 48.77 billion CNY, reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year increase and a 42.5% quarter-on-quarter increase, driven by a rise in sales volume [2][3]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in Q4 2024 was 96,000 CNY, with a gross margin of 16.2%, showing a slight recovery from previous quarters [2][3]. Sales and Expenses - Self-branded vehicle sales in Q4 2024 were 507,000 units, a 21.3% increase year-on-year and a 49.7% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Sales expenses increased due to the launch of new models, with the sales expense ratio at 5.8% for Q4 2024 [3]. New Energy Transition - The company’s new energy brands, Deep Blue and Avita, achieved cumulative sales of 68,000 and 24,000 units, respectively, in the first three months of 2025 [4]. - The company plans to launch new models, including the Deep Blue S09, which features advanced driving assistance technology [4]. Future Outlook - The report projects a strong outlook for the company, supported by its electric and intelligent transformation, with expected EPS of 0.89 CNY, 1.09 CNY, and 1.28 CNY for 2025-2027 [4][12].