长安汽车：系列点评二十四：业绩符合预期 新能源转型加速-20250411

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price of 12.20 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14 for 2025 [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 159.73 billion CNY for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.32 billion CNY, up 104.5% year-on-year [1]. - The company is accelerating its transition to new energy vehicles, with significant sales growth in its self-branded models, particularly in the new energy segment [4]. - The report forecasts revenues of 189.55 billion CNY, 209.46 billion CNY, and 233.54 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 8.87 billion CNY, 10.76 billion CNY, and 12.72 billion CNY for the same years [4][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached 48.77 billion CNY, reflecting a 13.2% year-on-year increase and a 42.5% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 3.74 billion CNY, up 159.0% year-on-year and 400.3% quarter-on-quarter [1][3]. - The average selling price (ASP) for vehicles in Q4 2024 was 96,000 CNY, with a gross margin of 16.2%, showing a slight improvement from the previous quarter [2]. Sales and Market Dynamics - The company sold 507,000 self-branded passenger vehicles in Q4 2024, a 21.3% increase year-on-year and a 49.7% increase quarter-on-quarter. The sales of self-branded new energy vehicles reached 279,000 units, up 66.6% year-on-year and 87.7% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. - The report highlights the launch of new models under the Deep Blue and Avita brands, with ambitious sales targets for 2025, including a goal of 500,000 units globally [4]. Cost and Expense Management - The report notes an increase in sales expenses due to the launch of new models, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios reported at 5.8%, 1.8%, 4.2%, and -0.4% respectively for Q4 2024 [3].