Xingtong Shipping(SH:603209) Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-11 08:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][4]. Core Views - The domestic chemical shipping market is experiencing a decline in freight rates, with a projected decrease of 5% in 2024. However, the company's domestic business gross margin is expected to improve to 40.6% from 36% in 2023, attributed to long-term contracts with major clients [1][4]. - Global chemical shipping rates are at historically high levels but are expected to start declining in the second half of 2024. The company's foreign business gross margin is projected at 29% for 2024, which may be impacted by falling freight rates [2][4]. - The company's shipping capacity is expected to grow significantly, with a 48% increase in 2023 and a 12% increase in 2024, leading to revenue growth of 58% and 22% respectively, and net profit growth of 22% and 39% [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to reach 1,858.22 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.68%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 405.88 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 15.83% [5][22]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to be 783.00 million yuan in 2025, with a corresponding increase in net profit margins [5][22]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a projected net profit of 4.06 billion yuan for 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 5.24 billion yuan, while introducing new profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [4][22]. Market Context - The domestic chemical shipping market is nearing a supply-demand inflection point, with some major shipowners shifting capacity to foreign trade routes due to declining domestic rates [1][2]. - The global chemical shipping capacity is expected to grow at rates of 4.9% and 5.7% in 2025-26, which may exert pressure on future freight rates [2][16].