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安琪酵母(600298):2024年报点评:海外势能强劲,盈利改善可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see strong overseas momentum and profit improvement, with a projected revenue growth of 11.86% in 2024 and a net profit growth of 4.07% [4][9] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with significant growth in international revenue, which is anticipated to be a key growth driver moving forward [9] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is reported at 13,585 million RMB, with projections of 15,197 million RMB for 2024, 17,068 million RMB for 2025, and continuing growth through 2027 [1][10] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 1,273 million RMB in 2023 to 1,325 million RMB in 2024, with further growth to 1,559 million RMB in 2025 [1][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.47 RMB in 2023 to 1.52 RMB in 2024, reaching 1.80 RMB in 2025 [1][10] Margin and Cost Analysis - The gross margin is expected to slightly decline in 2024 due to increased depreciation and shipping costs, but improvements are anticipated in 2025 as shipping costs decrease and raw material prices stabilize [3][4] - The company’s gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 are projected at 23.52% and 8.90%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacities coming online in 2024 and 2025, particularly in Egypt, Russia, and Yunnan, which will help alleviate cost pressures and improve profitability [4][9] - The anticipated decrease in sugar molasses prices and the nearing completion of capital expenditures are expected to contribute positively to profit margins in the coming years [3][4]