AVIC SAC(SH:600760) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-11 10:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 42.84 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.37%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.39 billion yuan, an increase of 12.86% year-on-year [7] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant revenue increase of 50.99% year-on-year and 377.55% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit rising by 145.19% year-on-year and 690.59% quarter-on-quarter, indicating a strong recovery [7] - The report highlights that the decline in annual revenue was primarily due to external factors affecting contract signing and supply progress, while the fourth quarter's performance improved due to better operational conditions and product deliveries [10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to recover to 46.22 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 7.9% [9] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 3.73 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.9% [9] - The gross margin for 2024 was reported at 12.47%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 7.97%, up by 1.46 percentage points [10] - The report anticipates continued improvement in profitability due to cost management and operational efficiency [10] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a rare public entity in the fighter jet sector, with significant demand for new military aircraft amid ongoing modernization efforts [10] - The implementation of stock incentives is expected to align the interests of key personnel with company performance, potentially driving future growth [10] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 downwards due to slower contract signing and supply chain issues, but introduces a new forecast for 2027, projecting a net profit of 5.26 billion yuan [10]