SUN PAPER(002078) 浙商证券·2025-04-11 12:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 40.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.101 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The company expects stable profit growth in 2025, driven by improved pricing and operational efficiency [4][5] - The company has a diversified product range and a strong integrated supply chain, which enhances its resilience against market fluctuations [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% quarter-on-quarter and 5.71% year-on-year, with a net profit of 642 million yuan, down 8.32% quarter-on-quarter and 32.31% year-on-year [1][2] - The total sales volume for paper products in 2024 was 7.51 million tons, an increase of 12.76% year-on-year, while pulp sales remained flat at 1.46 million tons [2] Product Analysis - Revenue breakdown for 2024 includes cultural paper at 13.0 billion yuan (down 2.3%), coated paper at 4.13 billion yuan (up 17.9%), and corrugated boxboard at 10.93 billion yuan (up 11.5%) [2] - The average price for dissolving pulp in Q4 2024 was 7,742 yuan per ton, with expectations for stable profitability in the domestic market [3] Operational Strategy - The company is optimizing its production capacity, with a total capacity exceeding 12 million tons in 2024, and plans for new production lines in 2025 [5] - The relocation of the dissolving pulp production line is expected to enhance cost efficiency and profitability starting in Q2 2025 [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 43.178 billion yuan, 49.892 billion yuan, and 52.912 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.02%, 15.55%, and 6.05% [12] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 3.6 billion yuan, 4.14 billion yuan, and 4.559 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 16.08%, 15.01%, and 10.13% [12]