青岛啤酒（600600）：销量企稳，蓄势待发

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tsingtao Brewery is maintained at OUTPERFORM with a target price of Rmb88.00, up from the current price of Rmb79.63 [2][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that Tsingtao Brewery is poised for a recovery in sales volume, supported by internal organizational rejuvenation and strategic restructuring with Qingdao Beverage Group, which aims to create a comprehensive ecosystem covering both alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages [3][12]. - Despite a decline in sales volume in 2024, the company demonstrated resilience in profitability through product structural upgrades and cost management, with a net profit margin increase to 13.5% [4][13]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed signs of improvement in both volume and price, with expectations for low to mid single-digit growth in sales volume for 2025, driven by favorable market conditions and cost optimization [5][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 was Rmb32.14 billion, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was Rmb4.34 billion, reflecting a 1.8% increase [4][13]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be Rmb3.52 in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 25 [2][11]. - The company expects to maintain a stable expense ratio in 2025, contributing to profit improvement [5][15]. Market Position and Strategy - Tsingtao Brewery is focusing on marketing innovations such as O2O, B2B, and community group buying to enhance consumer engagement and adapt to changing purchasing behaviors [3][12]. - The company aims to strengthen its market share through strategic restructuring and integration of resources, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in both the beer and health beverage markets [3][12]. Valuation and Investment Outlook - The report suggests that Tsingtao Brewery's current valuation is at a historical low, making it an attractive investment opportunity, especially given its defensive attributes in the domestic consumption sector [15]. - The anticipated recovery in catering consumption scenarios could lead to a dual increase in sales volume and product structure, driving profit elasticity [15].