Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.44 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decline by 17.7% to 801 million yuan [1][4]. - The competitive landscape in the construction agency industry is intensifying, leading to a decrease in construction fees and profit margins [1][3]. - Despite the challenges, the company retains a market share of 22.1% in new contracts, maintaining its leading position in the construction agency market [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s revenue is projected at 3.44 billion yuan, with commercial construction revenue at 2.75 billion yuan (up 17.3%) and government construction revenue at 626 million yuan (down 20.6%) [1]. - The gross profit margin for commercial construction is expected to be 51.2% (down 1.1 percentage points), while for government construction, it is projected at 40.1% (down 5.1 percentage points), leading to an overall gross margin of 49.6% (down 2.6 percentage points) [1][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company signed new construction contracts covering an area of 36.5 million square meters in 2024, a 3.4% increase, but the new contract value decreased by 10.1% to 9.32 billion yuan, with a new contract price of 255 yuan per square meter (down 13.1%) [2]. - The company’s project distribution is increasingly focused on first- and second-tier cities, which now account for 58% of new projects [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 60%, with a proposed final dividend of 0.24 yuan per share, totaling 482 million yuan [3][4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.57 billion yuan, 3.65 billion yuan, and 3.59 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 768 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 866 million yuan [4][5].
绿城管理控股：代建竞争加剧，重视经营巩固龙头地位-20250411