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估值周观察(4月第2期):先抑后扬,以我为主

Core Insights - The overseas market indices showed mixed performance in the past week (April 7-11, 2025), with US stocks rebounding from oversold conditions while European and Asia-Pacific indices generally declined. The valuation of US stocks expanded slightly, while European and Asia-Pacific markets experienced minor contractions due to the rapid decline on "Black Monday" [2][9] - The Nasdaq index, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw significant valuation expansions, with PE ratios increasing by 2.57x, 2.28x, and 1.95x respectively compared to April 4, 2025 [2][9] - In terms of quantiles, most major indices in regions other than the Dow Jones and Hong Kong are below the 20th percentile, with the Hang Seng Technology Index showing significant valuation differentiation, currently at a PE below the 5th percentile over the past year [2][9] A-share Market Valuation - The core broad-based valuation of A-shares continued to contract, with mid-cap growth stocks experiencing notable declines. The National Index 2000 and CSI 1000 saw PE, PB, PS, and PCF ratios contract significantly, with PE reductions of 2.69x and 2.03x respectively [2][23] - As of April 11, 2025, the overall valuation levels of major A-share indices have contracted compared to the previous week, with PE, PB, and PS mostly in the 40%-55% quantile range, while PCF is in the 80%-85% quantile range over the past three years [2][24] - Large-cap growth stocks maintain superior short-term quantile levels, with rolling one-year quantile levels for PE, PB, PS, and PCF at 18.60%, 25.41%, 50.41%, and 33.06% respectively [2][24] Industry Valuation - Most primary industry valuations contracted this week, with significant declines in the midstream materials & manufacturing and TMT sectors. The power equipment industry experienced the largest drop, with a weekly decline of 8.09% [2][41] - The valuation of most primary industries contracted, with the comprehensive industry experiencing the largest contraction, while the retail and agriculture sectors saw slight PE expansions of 0.76x and 0.73x respectively [2][41] Emerging Industries - In the emerging industries, valuations mostly contracted, particularly in the renewable energy sector, which saw a significant drop of 8.87%. The valuation of photovoltaic stocks adjusted sharply, with a PE contraction of 5.55x [2][41] - The integrated circuit sector experienced valuation expansion, with a PE increase of 1.12x this week. Among popular concepts, the agricultural theme index saw a notable PE expansion of 7.58x [2][41]