GONGNIU(SH:603195) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-04-12 13:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 84.6 RMB per share based on a 25-year valuation of 23X [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in China's consumer electrical industry, with a focus on converters and wall switches, achieving an average ROE of approximately 29% from 2020 to 2023. The company aims to diversify into three emerging business areas: new energy, non-main lighting, and international expansion, with a goal of reaching a revenue target of 100 billion RMB [2][16]. - Future ROE is projected to depend on the profit margin growth of emerging businesses, with mid-term ROE expected to be in the range of 28-31%. Adjusting the capital structure through dividends or buybacks could further enhance this potential [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.0% in revenue and 18.7% in net profit from 2020 to 2023, reaching revenues of 15.7 billion RMB and net profits of 3.87 billion RMB in 2023. The company maintains a high ROE, averaging 29% during the same period [16]. 2. Business Diversification Strategy - The company is adopting a multi-faceted growth strategy, inspired by Danaher's experience, to enhance its operational efficiency and management through the Bull Business System (BBS). This system aims to integrate various business lines and support long-term strategic goals [2][46]. 3. Emerging Business Prospects - New Energy Business: Launched in 2021, this segment includes charging guns and storage products, with a revenue of 290 million RMB in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 120.2%. The company holds the top market share in this segment [3][4]. - Lighting Business: The company focuses on health lighting, particularly through its independent brand "Muguang," with over 300 experience stores established. This segment is expected to drive new growth in the lighting business [3]. - International Expansion: The company has established an international division in 2023, targeting markets in Europe and Southeast Asia, with a clear strategy to replicate its domestic success [4]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.3 billion RMB, 4.75 billion RMB, and 5.19 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, representing growth rates of 11.0%, 10.7%, and 9.2% [4][8].