PSBC(SH:601658) Tianfeng Securities·2025-04-13 00:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" with a target price of 6.21 CNY, representing a potential upside of 22% from the current price of 5.1 CNY [8]. Core Views - The report highlights a recovery in revenue growth driven by net interest income, with total revenue for 2024 reaching approximately 348.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.83%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 86.5 billion CNY, reflecting a slight increase of 0.24% year-on-year [1][2]. - Non-interest income showed significant contribution, with a total of 62.7 billion CNY in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.21% [2][13]. - The bank's net interest margin for 2024 was recorded at 1.87%, down 14 basis points year-on-year, influenced by various factors including LPR adjustments and reductions in existing mortgage rates [3][16]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit: In 2024, Postal Savings Bank achieved total revenue of approximately 348.8 billion CNY, with net interest income accounting for 82% of total revenue at 286.1 billion CNY, which grew by 1.53% year-on-year. Non-interest income was 62.7 billion CNY, up 3.21% year-on-year [2][13]. - Profit Growth: The bank's profit before provisions showed improvement, with net profit growth turning positive in the latter part of the year, reaching 4.47% in Q4 2024 [2][13]. - Asset Quality: The bank maintained a stable asset quality with a non-performing loan balance of 80.3 billion CNY, representing a non-performing loan ratio of 0.9% [4][27]. Asset and Liability Management - Asset Growth: As of the end of 2024, the total interest-earning assets amounted to 16.84 trillion CNY, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.0%. The corporate loan portfolio expanded by 13.5% year-on-year, with significant growth in infrastructure, manufacturing, real estate, and construction loans [3][22]. - Liability Structure: The total interest-bearing liabilities reached 16.08 trillion CNY, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.0%. The total deposits grew by 9.5% year-on-year, with time deposits increasing by 12.3% [4][23]. Profitability and Valuation - Earnings Forecast: The bank's net profit is projected to grow by 1.23%, 3.98%, and 4.42% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The estimated book value per share (BPS) for these years is 8.82 CNY, 9.25 CNY, and 9.64 CNY [5][6]. - Valuation Metrics: The report uses a dividend discount model to estimate a target price of 6.21 CNY, corresponding to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.70x for 2024 [5].