GONGNIU(SH:603195) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-04-13 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 84.6 RMB per share based on a 25-year valuation of 23X [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in China's consumer electrical industry, with a focus on converters and wall switches, achieving an average ROE of approximately 29% from 2020 to 2023. The company aims to diversify into three emerging business areas: new energy, no-main-lighting, and international expansion, with a goal of reaching a revenue target of 100 billion RMB [2][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview and Growth Strategy - The company has established itself as a leader in the consumer electrical sector, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.0% in revenue and 18.7% in net profit from 2020 to 2023, reaching 15.695 billion RMB in revenue and 3.87 billion RMB in net profit in 2023 [16]. - The company has a strong focus on maintaining high ROE levels, with an average of 29.0% from 2020 to 2023, positioning itself as a high-quality growth entity in the A-share light manufacturing industry [16]. 2. Emerging Business Areas - New Energy Business: Launched in 2021, this segment includes charging guns and storage products, with a revenue of 290 million RMB in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 120.2%. The company aims to leverage its existing technology and brand reputation to capture market share [3][4]. - No-Main-Lighting Business: Focused on health lighting, the company has developed the "Muguang" brand and established over 300 experience stores, driving growth in the lighting segment [3]. - International Expansion: The company has initiated its international business with a revenue of approximately 180 million RMB in 2023, targeting markets in Europe and Southeast Asia, with a clear strategy to replicate its domestic success [4]. 3. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 4.295 billion RMB, 4.754 billion RMB, and 5.192 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 10.98%, 10.68%, and 9.22% [4][8]. - The projected ROE for the mid-term is estimated to be in the range of 28-31%, driven by the profitability of emerging businesses and potential adjustments in capital structure through dividends or buybacks [3]. 4. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a strong competitive position in the converter and wall switch markets, with a focus on high net profit margins and market share. The average net profit margin from 2015 to 2023 is approximately 22.3%, supported by a robust brand and product differentiation [16][22]. - The company’s financial characteristics include high net profit margins, moderate turnover rates, and low debt levels, which contribute to its sustained high ROE [16][32]. 5. Management and Operational Efficiency - The company has adopted a unique management system (BBS) inspired by Danaher’s DBS, focusing on internal governance and operational efficiency to support its diversified growth strategy [46][47]. - The BBS framework emphasizes strategic planning, lean marketing, and efficient production processes, which are crucial for the successful expansion of new business lines [46].