Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from high industry prosperity, leading to performance growth, with expectations for new customers and production capacity remaining strong [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 24.006 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.35%, and a net profit of 3.840 billion RMB, up 20.00% year-on-year [6] - The company’s core business remains in sports and leisure shoes, with revenue from this segment reaching 20.991 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.88% [6] Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2023: 20.114 billion RMB - 2024: 24.006 billion RMB (19.35% YoY growth) - 2025E: 27.664 billion RMB (15.24% YoY growth) - 2026E: 31.734 billion RMB (14.71% YoY growth) - 2027E: 36.258 billion RMB (14.25% YoY growth) [5] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2023: 3.200 billion RMB - 2024: 3.840 billion RMB (20.00% YoY growth) - 2025E: 4.355 billion RMB (13.40% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4.959 billion RMB (13.87% YoY growth) - 2027E: 5.731 billion RMB (15.58% YoY growth) [5] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2023: 2.74 RMB - 2024: 3.29 RMB - 2025E: 3.73 RMB - 2026E: 4.25 RMB - 2027E: 4.91 RMB [5] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 21.18% - 2024: 22.03% - 2025E: 21.22% - 2026E: 20.63% - 2027E: 20.39% [5] Market Performance - The company sold 223 million pairs of sports shoes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.53%, with a production capacity of 229 million pairs, up 3.32% year-on-year [6] - The company’s production capacity utilization rate reached 96.72% in 2024, an increase of approximately 10 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23 RMB per 10 shares for the 2024 fiscal year, with an expected payout ratio of about 70% of net profit [6]
华利集团（300979）：行业高景气助公司业绩增长，新客户新产能预期不减