MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 招商证券·2025-04-13 10:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - In 2024, the company faced revenue pressure due to demand constraints, but benefited from declining milk prices and efficient expense management, leading to an unexpected improvement in operating profit margins. The company has addressed its balance sheet issues by recognizing impairments related to goodwill and losses from associates [6] - For 2025, the company plans to optimize its supply chain to reduce costs and enhance efficiency, while also focusing on high-end product strategies and precise marketing. A slight revenue recovery is anticipated, with stable operating profit margins [6] - The dairy industry is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics in 2025, following a period of competitive pressure and excess supply in 2024, which should help the company emerge from its low point [6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of RMB 886.7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.05 billion, down 97.8%. Adjusted for goodwill impairment and losses from associates, the net profit was RMB 44.35 billion, a decrease of 7.8% [5][6] - The operating profit for 2024 was RMB 72.6 billion, with an operating profit margin of 8.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.509 per share, totaling RMB 19.94 billion, with a payout ratio of 45% [5] Industry Outlook - The liquid milk segment continues to face demand constraints, with revenues declining by 11.0% in 2024. However, the ice cream segment showed a revenue increase of 18.0% [5] - The overall dairy market is expected to stabilize as supply-side adjustments continue and policy measures boost demand [6] - The company aims to maintain its leading position in the cheese market, focusing on product innovation and brand leadership [5][6]