Zijin Mining(SH:601899) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-13 13:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][28]. Core Views - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 789.28 billion yuan, up 5.55% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 101.67 billion yuan, up 62.39% year-on-year, marking the first time quarterly net profit exceeded 100 billion yuan [7][28]. - The increase in performance is attributed to higher production of gold and copper, as well as favorable price movements in these commodities, with Comex gold averaging approximately 2884 USD/ounce, up about 38% year-on-year, and LME copper averaging about 9454 USD/ton, up about 10% year-on-year [7][28]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity through various projects, aiming for significant increases in copper and gold output in the coming years [23][25][27]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 3699 billion yuan, 3864 billion yuan, and 4042 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 4.5%, and 4.6% [4][28]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are adjusted to 397.58 billion yuan, 455.30 billion yuan, and 506.74 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.0%, 14.5%, and 11.3% [4][28]. Production Capacity and Projects - The company plans to achieve a copper production target of 1.15 million tons and gold production of 85 tons in 2025, with ongoing projects in various regions including Africa, South America, and Asia [9][24][25]. - Significant projects include the Kamoa project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is expected to reach an annual copper production of 600,000 tons, and the Rosabel gold mine in Suriname, which will have a capacity of 10 tons/year [23][25]. Cost Management - The company reported an increase in unit operating costs for gold and copper, with gold at 251.08 yuan/gram (up 12.61% year-on-year) and copper at 24,107 yuan/ton (up 7.57% year-on-year) [2][12]. - Despite rising costs, the company aims to maintain strict cost control and enhance management efficiency to mitigate cost pressures [2][12]. Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics indicate a healthy outlook, with a projected diluted EPS of 1.50 yuan, 1.71 yuan, and 1.91 yuan for 2025-2027, and a current PE ratio of 11.5, 10.0, and 9.0 for the same years [4][29]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to remain strong, with projections of 23.7%, 22.8%, and 21.6% for 2025-2027 [4][29].