CCGB(SZ:300138) China Post Securities·2025-04-14 01:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [1] Core Views - The company has passed its performance low point, and a positive trend is expected for 2025. The plant extraction business is showing steady performance, while the cottonseed business has suffered significant losses due to price declines. However, there are signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2025, with a projected increase in net profit [4][6][7] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 12.05 CNY - Total shares outstanding are 4.83 billion, with 3.98 billion in circulation - Total market capitalization is 58 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 48 billion CNY - The 52-week high and low prices are 12.05 CNY and 7.00 CNY, respectively - The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 65.0% - The price-to-earnings ratio is 66.28 - The largest shareholder is Lu Qingguo [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 6.994 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 94 million CNY, a decline of 80.39%. The decline was primarily due to significant losses in the cottonseed business and reduced sales prices in the plant extraction segment [4][5] - The plant extraction business showed stable volume but declining prices, with key products like chili red and lutein experiencing sales growth but lower average selling prices. The cottonseed business reported a revenue of 3.475 billion CNY, down 2.07% year-on-year, with a loss of 150 million CNY from its core subsidiary [5] - For the first quarter of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 90 million to 120 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 133.21% to 210.95% [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to recover from its performance low in 2024, with projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 0.71 CNY, 0.94 CNY, and 1.10 CNY, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of only 15 times for 2025, indicating a low valuation [7][8]