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安踏体育:Acquisition of Jack Wolfskin finally announced-20250414

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Anta Sports, with a target price trimmed to HK119.08,basedona24xFY25EP/Eratio[1][3].CoreInsightsTheacquisitionofJackWolfskinisviewedpositively,withtheacquisitionpriceconsideredattractiveandsignificantpotentialforexpansioninthemidpricedoutdoorindustryandEuropeanmarkets[1][11].DespiteaslightdeclineinretailsalesgrowthinMarchApril2025,theoutlookforQ22025remainscautiouslyoptimisticduetovariousgrowthdrivers[11][12].ThecompanysretailsalesgrowthinQ12025wassatisfactory,withimprovementsininventorymanagementandabetterthanexpectedprofitmargin[10][11].FinancialSummaryRevenueprojectionsforFY25EaresetatRMB78,235million,withayearonyeargrowthof10.5 119.08, based on a 24x FY25E P/E ratio [1][3]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is viewed positively, with the acquisition price considered attractive and significant potential for expansion in the mid-priced outdoor industry and European markets [1][11]. - Despite a slight decline in retail sales growth in March-April 2025, the outlook for Q2 2025 remains cautiously optimistic due to various growth drivers [11][12]. - The company's retail sales growth in Q1 2025 was satisfactory, with improvements in inventory management and a better-than-expected profit margin [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 78,235 million, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [2][12]. - Net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB 14,961.4 million, reflecting a decrease of 12.7% year-on-year [2][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 4.66, down from RMB 5.34 in FY24A [2][12]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Anta Sports is approximately HK 226.67 billion, with a current stock price of HK$ 83.85, indicating a potential upside of 42% to the target price [3][4]. - The stock is trading at a P/E ratio of 17x for FY25E, which is considered attractive compared to its 5-year average of 25x [1][12]. Acquisition Details - Anta Sports announced the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin for USD 290 million (approximately RMB 23.5 billion), with expected sales of EUR 325 million and adjusted EBITDA of EUR 12 million for FY25E [11][18]. - The valuation metrics for the acquisition indicate a P/S ratio of approximately 0.8x, which is lower than both Anta's group average and the global sports industry average [11][18].