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再鼎医药:艾加莫德新剂型获FDA批准,不惧竞争,大单品销售可期-20250414
09688ZAI LAB(09688)2025-04-14 03:28

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zai Lab (09688.HK) [2] Core Views - Zai Lab's drug Efgartigimod shows strong potential in the treatment of Myasthenia Gravis (MG) with rapid onset and long-term efficacy, establishing its position as a Best-in-Class (BIC) therapy [8][11] - The FDA has approved the pre-filled subcutaneous injection form of Efgartigimod, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [25][26] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 564millionin2025and564 million in 2025 and 1.357 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 41.35% and 62.46% respectively [7][40] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Zai Lab's stock price is currently at HKD 22.20, with a market capitalization of HKD 24.45 billion [2][7] Financial Data and Forecast - Total shares outstanding: 1,101.28 million - Revenue projections: 267millionin2023,267 million in 2023, 399 million in 2024, 564millionin2025,564 million in 2025, 835 million in 2026, and 1.357billionin2027Netprofitprojections:1.357 billion in 2027 - Net profit projections: -335 million in 2023, -257millionin2024,257 million in 2024, -166 million in 2025, 17millionin2026,and17 million in 2026, and 168 million in 2027 - Gross margin expected to improve from 62.94% in 2024 to 69.45% in 2027 [7][40] Drug Development Insights - Efgartigimod has shown rapid efficacy in clinical trials, with 40% of patients achieving minimal symptom expression (MSE) within the first treatment cycle [8][14] - Long-term studies indicate consistent efficacy and safety, with 89% of patients showing significant improvement after 11 treatment cycles [21][22] - The drug is positioned to treat multiple autoimmune diseases, expanding its market potential beyond MG [37][32] Competitive Landscape - Despite the emergence of several competing biologics in the MG treatment space, Efgartigimod's sales growth remains robust, with projected global sales of approximately $2.2 billion in 2024 [32][34]