HDPI(SH:600027) NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-04-14 09:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in profitability and an increase in dividends, supported by a favorable outlook on acquisitions [1][3]. - The company has a robust financial position with a significant focus on cost control, leading to improved cash flow and a sustainable dividend policy [1][3][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Recovery and Continuous Dividends - The company operates 46 power generation enterprises with a total installed capacity of 59.82 million kilowatts, primarily from coal-fired power [1][24]. - The decline in coal prices has led to improved gross margins, with 2024 quarterly gross margins exceeding those of 2023, although still below 2019/2020 levels [1][34]. - The company has initiated mid-year dividends for the first time, achieving a dividend payout ratio of 46% and a year-on-year increase in dividends per share of 40% [1][65]. 2. Coal Power Foundation and Positive Performance - The company has a coal power capacity of 37.46 million kilowatts, with an 80% equity share, and is well-distributed across 11 provinces [2][78]. - A decrease in coal prices is projected to enhance profitability, with estimates suggesting a potential increase in net profit by approximately 1.8 billion yuan if spot coal prices drop by 100 yuan per ton [2]. 3. Gas Power as a Supplement and Investment Gains - The company plans to increase its gas-fired power capacity by 6.28 million kilowatts, raising its equity share from 17% to 24% [3]. - Investment income for 2024 is projected at 3.478 billion yuan, with a significant contribution from joint ventures [3][65]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 107.4 billion, 100.8 billion, and 95.0 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 6.478 billion, 7.161 billion, and 7.761 billion yuan [3][4]. - The report suggests a long-term investment value due to the anticipated growth in earnings per share (EPS) and a favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratio [3].