CBGF(SZ:002478) Orient Securities·2025-04-14 10:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.14 CNY based on a 2025 PE valuation of 11X [2][5][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant improvement in performance due to ongoing high-end project developments and a favorable outlook for downstream demand in the oil and gas sector [1][9]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, predicting earnings per share of 0.74, 0.83, and 0.92 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.99 and 1.10 CNY for 2025 and 2026 [2][10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 56.96 billion CNY, a decrease of 14.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.34 billion CNY, down 19.0% [9]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed a significant improvement, with a net profit of 2.23 billion CNY, reflecting a 161.08% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 38.04% increase year-on-year [9]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 16.76%, with a slight improvement in the fourth quarter to 17.45% [9]. - The projected financials for 2025-2027 include revenues of 61.94 billion CNY, 69.14 billion CNY, and 74.25 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.69 billion CNY, 7.51 billion CNY, and 8.32 billion CNY [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end product development, particularly in specialized oil casing pipes and high-performance boiler tubes, which are expected to see increased demand due to global energy security strategies [9]. - The company is advancing its high-end projects, with several key product lines entering trial production phases, which are anticipated to contribute positively to future earnings [9].