PETROCHINA(SH:601857) Huaxin Securities·2025-04-14 11:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for China Petroleum (601857.SH) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a record net profit attributable to shareholders of 1646.76 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.02% [4][5] - The oil and gas equivalent production for 2024 was 1.797 billion barrels, a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, with plans to increase to 1.827 billion barrels in 2025 [5] - The company’s capital expenditure slightly increased to 2758.49 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio exceeding 50%, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 29379.81 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.48% year-on-year, while the net profit for Q4 2024 was 321.58 billion yuan, showing an 8.05% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The average realized oil price was 74.7 USD/barrel, down 2.5% from the previous year [5] Production and Growth - The company plans to produce 9.36 billion barrels of crude oil in 2025, a 2.97% increase from 2024, and aims for a natural gas production of 5341 billion cubic feet, a 3.86% increase [5] - The company’s free cash flow reached 1761.22 billion yuan, a 17.1% increase year-on-year, indicating a robust financial position [6] Profitability and Efficiency - The company’s refining and chemical business is transitioning towards higher value-added products, with Q4 2024 gross margin improving by 2.91 percentage points to 25.84% [7] - The chemical product output increased by 13.6% year-on-year, with new materials production rising by 49.3% [9] Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1704.53 billion yuan, 1762.80 billion yuan, and 1784.50 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.1, 7.8, and 7.8 [10][12]