扬农化工：业绩基本符合预期，葫芦岛进入贡献期-20250414

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5][35] Core Views - The company's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 10,435 million yuan, a decrease of 9.09% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,202 million yuan, down 23.19% year-on-year [10][11] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a significant drop in the average selling prices of raw materials, which led to a total product price loss of approximately 1,500 million yuan [3][21] - Despite the challenges, the company is expected to see a recovery in net profit, with projections of 1,470 million yuan, 1,780 million yuan, and 2,000 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [35] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 10,435 million yuan, with raw materials, trade, and formulations contributing 6,418 million yuan, 2,306 million yuan, and 1,545 million yuan respectively [2][11] - The average selling price for raw materials was 64,300 yuan/ton, down 16% from 2023, while the average price for formulations was 42,500 yuan/ton, down 9.38% [3][21] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 23.1%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, with raw materials gross margin at 27.7% [27][28] Sales and Volume - The total sales volume for raw materials in 2024 was 99,900 tons, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, while the sales volume for formulations was 36,400 tons, up 1.8% year-on-year [2][16] - Quarterly sales volumes for raw materials were 25,000 tons in Q1, 25,000 tons in Q2, 26,100 tons in Q3, and 23,800 tons in Q4 [16][31] Cost Control and Expenses - The company has implemented effective cost control measures, with sales expenses remaining stable year-on-year and management expenses decreasing by approximately 50 million yuan [4][30] - The total R&D expenses were maintained at a high level of 358 million yuan, with only a slight decrease of about 6 million yuan year-on-year [30] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing construction and commissioning of the Liaoning Youchuang project, which is projected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2025 [33][34] - The agricultural chemical industry is currently at a cyclical low, but there are expectations for recovery in demand and pricing in the coming years as inventory levels normalize [26]