萤石网络（688475）：2025Q1业绩双位数增长修复，智能户与智能服务设备人表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price based on the last closing price of 36.40 [1][8] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 54.42 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.04 billion yuan, down 10.52% [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.59%, and a net profit of 1.38 billion yuan, up 10.42% [4][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.5 billion yuan to shareholders, with a payout ratio of 54.70% [4] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from various segments was as follows: smart home cameras at 29.48 billion yuan (-1.38%), smart entry at 7.48 billion yuan (+47.87%), smart service robots at 1.66 billion yuan (+265.12%), and cloud platform services at 10.52 billion yuan (+22.87%) [5] - Domestic sales reached 34.87 billion yuan (+5.65%), while overseas sales were 19.12 billion yuan (+26.42%), indicating strong growth in international markets [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 42.55%, showing a slight decrease of 0.17 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 10.00%, down 0.13 percentage points [6] - The company’s expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 14.28%, 3.06%, 14.75%, and -1.64%, respectively, with management expenses showing continuous optimization [6] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 6.91 billion yuan, 8.73 billion yuan, and 10.95 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.88 yuan, 1.11 yuan, and 1.39 yuan [8][9] - The projected revenue growth rates for the next few years are 17.60% for 2025, 17.20% for 2026, and 15.80% for 2027 [9][11] Industry Outlook - The report highlights the potential for growth in the smart home industry, driven by advancements in AI and privacy capabilities, which are expected to enhance the company's competitive edge [6][8]