降准降息落地前，利率下行方向或未变

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market was strong last week, with short - end credit spreads compressing and secondary perpetual bond spreads slightly rising. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the downward direction of long - end interest rates may remain unchanged. Although the implementation time of policy easing needs to wait, it is not necessarily a negative for long - term bonds. At present, the duration strategy is still relatively dominant, and the portfolio can maintain a medium - to - high duration. 3 - 5 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds also have allocation value [2][3][29] Summary by Directory I. The impact of the escalation of reciprocal tariffs on the fundamentals has not yet emerged, and further policy support is needed - Last week, the reciprocal tariffs between China and the United States continued to escalate, with the tariff rate increase reaching 125% on both sides, and the total US tariff rate on Chinese goods exceeding 145%. However, the US also announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs above 10% for other countries and exemption for some electronic products, which may ease the pressure on China's re - export trade [7] - Due to the trade shock and unstable policy expectations, the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets were all under pressure, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield remaining high at around 4.5% and the US dollar index falling below 100. The US has not achieved its goals of reducing the trade deficit, promoting manufacturing reshoring, and cutting the fiscal deficit, and may take other measures in the future, so the global market may still face volatility [8] - China's economy has enhanced its resilience and preparedness for potential tariff risks. The 3 - month export growth of 12.3% was mainly affected by the Spring Festival shift. After adjusting for the seasonal factor, the actual export growth has weakened marginally, but the impact of tariffs has not fully emerged. However, after the escalation of bilateral tariffs, China's exports may be affected, and it is estimated that it may impact GDP by 1.5% - 2%, so domestic policies need to be strengthened [12][15][17] II. The central bank's attitude towards the capital market is gradually returning to normal, but reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may still need to wait - The market's expectation of looser capital has increased, but historical experiences show that significant drops in capital interest rates below policy rates are usually preceded by signals such as continuous reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts by the central bank or a continuous increase in bank net lending. Currently, the central bank's open - market operations and bank net lending do not show such signals [18] - The "Financial Times" put forward three conditions for "choosing the right time for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", and although these factors have emerged, their impacts are not yet prominent. The central bank is still weighing between stabilizing the bond market and reducing costs. It may lower the priority of stabilizing the bond market and advance the policy normalization, with DR007 likely to return to the 1.65% - 1.7% range, but further reduction may require the coordinated efforts of fiscal and monetary policies. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may still need to wait, but relevant information is likely to emerge around the Politburo meeting in April [20][21] - The loosening of the capital market last week was partly due to the large - scale net repayment of government bonds. However, this week, the net payment of government bonds will reach 797.8 billion yuan, the highest since mid - December last year. Although the probability of a significant tightening of funds is limited, the short - term capital market may not loosen significantly [22] - The March financial data was released on Sunday. The new social financing scale reached 5.89 trillion yuan, and the stock growth rate rose to 8.4%. The increase was mainly due to the rise in credit and government bond net financing. The new credit of residents and enterprises was affected by factors such as the expected increase in consumer loan interest rates and the convenience of platform working capital loans after the replacement of hidden debts. The subsequent use of replacement bonds may have a negative impact on credit, and more attention should be paid to the changes in domestic policies under external shocks [25][27][28] III. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the downward direction of interest rates remains unchanged - Although the implementation of tariffs and the degree of domestic policy hedging are uncertain, and the short - term bond market may fluctuate, the impact of tariff measures on the fundamentals has not been fully priced in the market, which is not necessarily a negative for long - term bonds. As export pressure gradually emerges, domestic policies are likely to be adjusted, and monetary easing is likely to be relatively early. Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, long - term interest rates may not face significant risks and may hit new lows. At present, the duration strategy is dominant, and 3 - 5 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds have allocation value [29]