Sunner(SZ:002299) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-04-15 02:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational efficiency, with profit scale expected to expand quarterly in 2024. The revenue for 2024 is projected at 18.586 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.53%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 724 million yuan, up 9.03% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 is anticipated to show a revenue of 4.823 billion yuan, a 5.78% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 342 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares, totaling 247 million yuan [4] - Short-term outlook for 2025 indicates potential increases in domestic chicken prices due to overseas avian influenza affecting imports, while long-term projections suggest that sufficient domestic supply may pressure chicken prices [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 to 1.091 billion yuan, 2026 to 1.247 billion yuan, and introduced a forecast for 2027 at 1.389 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.88, 1.00, and 1.12 yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Poultry Breeding and Processing Business - The poultry breeding and processing industry reported revenue of 10.356 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 5.70%, down 0.62 percentage points. Despite industry challenges, the company has improved breeding performance, leading to a projected 10% reduction in comprehensive meat production costs for Q1 2025. The company achieved the largest share of chicken exports to Japan, with export revenue of 638 million yuan, an increase of 18.78% year-on-year [5] Food Processing Business - The food processing sector generated revenue of 7.010 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, with a gross margin of 19.61%, up 0.94 percentage points. The production volume of deep-processed meat products reached 314,900 tons, a 3.08% increase, while sales volume rose by 6.32% to 316,900 tons. The company's retail business is expected to see over 30% growth in Q1 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s financial metrics for 2023A to 2027E show a steady increase in revenue and net profit. Revenue is expected to grow from 18.487 billion yuan in 2023 to 22.028 billion yuan in 2027, while net profit is projected to rise from 664 million yuan to 1.389 billion yuan over the same period. The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 10.6% to 12.1% [7][10]